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Verstrenging coronamaatregelen en exponentiële groei

Publié le 27 juillet 2020 à 15:00

 

Vandaag werden de coronamaatregelen opnieuw verstrengd. Voor veel mensen lijken de maatregelen buiten proportie. Dit komt omdat de meesten niet vertrouwd zijn met het begrip "exponentiële groei". Ik probeer het hieronder even duidelijk te maken.

Stel dat er op dit moment 1000 mensen besmet zijn met het coronavirus (ongeveer 1/3 van de gevallen wordt gedetecteerd, dus dat lijkt me een realistisch cijfer). Stel dat de groeifactor 2 is. Dus elke besmette persoon steekt 2 anderen aan, we nemen aan dat die personen de dag erna positief testen.

Dan gaat het als volgt:

1) 27 juli: 1 000 nieuwe besmettingen

2) 28 juli: 2 000 nieuwe besmettingen

3) 29 juli: 4 000 nieuwe besmettingen

4) 30 juli: 8 000 nieuwe besmettingen

5) 31 juli: 16 000 nieuwe besmettingen

6) 1 augustus: 32 000 nieuwe besmettingen

7) 2 augustus: 64 000 nieuwe besmettingen

8 ) 3 augustus: 128 000 nieuwe besmettingen

9) 4 augustus: 256 000 nieuwe besmettingen

10) 5 augustus: 512 000 nieuwe besmettingen

11) 6 augustus: 1 024 000 nieuwe besmettingen

12) 7 augustus: 2 048 000 nieuwe besmettingen

13) 8 augustus: 4 096 000 nieuwe besmettingen

14) 9 augustus: 8 192 000 nieuwe besmettingen

--> Dit is trouwens niet meer mogelijk, want zoveel "onbesmette" Belgen zijn er niet meer over.


En dit alles op slechts twee weken tijd. Zo snel gaat exponentiële groei!


Noot van de redactie ;-) : de data in dit bericht zijn fictief en niet gebaseerd op de huidige virologische/epidemiologische gegevens. Met dit schrijven wil ik enkel aantonen hoe snel exponentiële groei gigantische proporties aanneemt.

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